A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
